PAT NEVIN: NUMBER CRUNCHING
In his column this week, Pat Nevin turns his attention from the score sheet to the balance sheet and ponders how global events will affect the world's biggest game.
Rather unusually I first want to deal with last week's competition, which was not easy. The challenge was to guess the correct score in the England v Kazakhstan game at Wembley on Saturday and guess whether or not Frank Lampard would score.
Well I spent many hours trawling through the entries and finally had to accept that no one at all got it right, amazingly every other imaginable score was suggested but not a single entry went for 5-1.
Lots did get it one goal out, either 5-0 or 4-1, and of those only a very few suggested Frank would fail to find the net. In the end after copious use of the old grey matter, half-a-dozen calculators and a few logarithms, the winner was calculated as Almas Tagibekov, who wins the Blue Pride Season Review DVD and it should be winging its way there as soon as he sends his address!
All that working with figures got me thinking about my original training before I became a footballer, that was studying for a degree in accounts and economics. In those days these subjects were really only considered to be of interest to geeks and bores, how times have changed especially over the past few weeks as the world's financial system has teetered on the edge of the abyss and become the focus of everyone's attention.
Certainly most of us will eventually feel the chill wind of this particular economic winter one way or the other, whatever governments, bankers and guys in bright, stripy shirts do in the short term. One thing for certain, it hasn't been boring watching the accepted wisdom of the entire subject of economics change before our very eyes every other day.
So what has this got to do with football I hear you ask? Well there is no way that the game, particularly in England, is going to walk away from this one unscathed. The game has become an extraordinary animal over the past decade, so much so that it has appeared almost untouchable to some extent, as it has grown in popularity, power and wealth.
Even some in football still feel it will just sail through the current choppy waters, but if American giants such as Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fanny and Freddie as well as a host of banks can either collapse or survive only with government aid, then football must be in some danger considering the debts incurred by the clubs.
Every club is different and most will look at Chelsea with undisguised envy due to our owner and his extraordinary wealth. Others have built their success on huge borrowing, not a healthy position in the current climate but you will not hear them complaining too loudly at the moment.
Any sign of weakness in any institution in the present conditions is liable to lead to dramatic share price falls or worse still, a lack of confidence in the owners. When that happens then no one is willing to loan money to them and that is potentially disastrous.
Whispers are already going around the game that one or two Premier League clubs are in a perilous state and that buyers are being sought immediately to save their situations. It is impossible to corroborate these stories but it underlines the jitters around that some are even questioning the whole model, built as it is on incredible TV deals that are totally dependent on viewers being able to afford the packages and companies being able to afford the advertising on their platforms.
These are uncertain times, who could have foreseen the very particular problems emanating from Iceland and its banking and investment system? Well a quick look at their strangely high interest rates might have given a clue, but even so the extremity of the collapse was still from far out there in the left field.
Think of how our own Gianfranco Zola was feeling when all this kicked off with his new club West Ham being owned by Icelandic businessmen. I did think it harsh when some wag warned that the players' wages at Upton Park would be paid in kind with haddock fillets next month.
Maybe it is time once and for all to consider the longer-term problems that might face the game, to ensure that each and every club is solvent and secure no matter what their type of ownership model is.
Does every club know what will happen if something goes wrong with SKY, their benefactor's business or indeed his life? Do the debt models at clubs still really work now that economics has changed so violently?
Even in a best-case scenario the ripples from the financial crisis will almost certainly cause turmoil for a long time to come for many people. I have heard from more than one fan who feels that affording to go to the games will be a worry if belts have to be tightened any further.
In the past, football has of course also been considered a relief in the bad times. Like going to the movies it is escapism, an hour-and-a-half to forget about the problems in the economy, at work and even at home. If the match ticket could be afforded it was often the one luxury enjoyed. I wonder if this is still the case? One way or another we may be about to find out.
Like everyone, maybe I am a bit selfish at times like these and just hope that my club is secure and I suppose at Chelsea we are safer than just about anyone thanks to Mr Abramovich. Maybe this is also a time to show the lead and for all players, not just those at the Bridge, to be a little less selfish looking, less ostentatious in their lives, considering what many of the fans may have to suffer in the coming months.
Lecture over, how about a nice easy question with the chance of a prize to cheer us all up after me miserabling (yes I know it is not a real word) at you. To win a copy of Didier Drogba's new autobiography, could you tell me where he scored his first goal for Chelsea? Answers as ever to pat.nevin@chelseafc.com
On Saturday I will be at Boro with the gal who chooses the winner of the competition each week. So if you are there, do say hi if you spot me and complain to her if she hasn't picked you up until now. I'll be the one pretending to be non-partisan while co-commentating on the game for BBC Radio 5 Live.




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