Approaching a weekend needing little to build the sense of occasion, Chelsea club historian Rick Glanvill and club statistician Paul Dutton look in detail at what might tip a finely-balanced contest.

Rick begins over the pond.

George Bush Senior coined the phrase in 1980: 'The big mo' - the sense that in a tight campaign the momentum has shifted decisively. Chelsea, playing the best football of our campaign to date, may have the 'big mo', but with the title United's to throw away, its effect may have to wait for the Champions League Final.

Sir Alex Ferguson's side travel to Wigan and kick off at the same time as the Blues against Bolton - 3pm Sunday. Before we even consider the delightful prospect of United dropping points against their neighbours, it has to be remembered that there is a difficult job still to do at the Bridge.

Chelsea beating Wanderers is nothing like the foregone conclusion the media is depicting: the Trotters have lost just once in their last four visits (all under Sam Allardyce), enjoyed two 2-2 draws - in which Kevin Davies was instrumental - and came from behind to win 2-1 in 2003.

The sole defeat in that sequence was a 5-1 decimation in October 2005 while Chelsea were setting the pace for a back-to-back title win. However, under Sammy Lee and his successor Gary Megson, Bolton's away form contributed to their flirtation with relegation this season. They are still not completely clear of the drop. If Bolton lose and Reading close the gap in their respective goal differences - unlikely, as it stands at 11 - the Trotters are doomed.

While it remains a distant likelihood, there will be a few of their supporters present who will remember the finale to the 1997/8 season. Back then they arrived on the Fulham Road one point ahead of Everton, who occupied the third relegation slot but faced a Coventry side in their habitual mid-table comfort zone.

Chelsea fans, sated by winning the League Cup and looking forward to beating Stuttgart in Stockholm, were in benign mood at the Bridge, with no axe to grind on Bolton.

It was Everton the majority of home fans wished to see the back of, as was obvious the moment Luca Vialli swept in the opening goal with just under three-quarters of the game remaining. Home choruses of 'Let them score, let them score' sprang up from the stands.

When poor youngster Jody Morris scored a rare goal, it was even greeted with a few good-natured boos, with more support for Bolton over Everton. The 2-0 scoreline, along with the Toffees stumbling to a 1-1 draw, meant that Wanderers were relegated on goal difference.

They face a Chelsea side that appears to have rediscovered its fluency and efficiency at just the right time in the season. Although Newcastle - and Michael Owen in particular - had two good chances to upset the odds, Chelsea's command of midfield was almost complete in the second half.

Avram Grant's switch to 4-4-2 at half-time deserves the credit, but the performances of Michaels Ballack and Essien amongst others were outstanding.

Ballack now has three goals in as many games and he's not been on the losing side in the league since January 2007; Riccy Carvalho, who suffered a back injury at the weekend, hasn't lost a league game since November 2006.

A considerable points deficit to United has been made up since March on the back of eight wins in ten league games: the kind of form to win the title most years. But Chelsea's arrival as challengers since 2004 has raised the bar.

In 2003 the cosy duopoly of United and Arsenal occupied the top two slots with 161 points between them. A year later Arsenal and Chelsea split 169. But when the Blues pushed on under Mourinho in 2004/5, the combined total of Chelsea's and United's points reached 178. In 2006 Chelsea and Man United shared 174, and last year, with United edging the race, the total was 172. Should both teams win this weekend they would both end on 87 points each - a joint total of 174 again. 

Of course, we hope that only one team reaches the 87 mark, and for that we depend on one of the two teams to have taken points off Chelsea in this emphatic charge for the finishing line: Wigan Athletic.

As has been pointed out elsewhere, their manager Steve Bruce was bold at the Bridge in that recent 1-1 draw. He introduced three attacking subs and ended the game with virtually a 4-2-4 formation. It was an impressive gamble, and he earned his reward when napping Chelsea missed the deep cross and Emile Heskey steered the equaliser home.

Wigan's top flight status is fully assured and they will playing for pride. They are bound to cause a jittery United some scares at some stage. The later, say we, the better!

The pitch at the JJB has been identified as a barrier to United's success on Sunday. So much so that rugby league side Wigan Warriors delayed their scheduled match from the Friday before to the Monday after United's visit to reduce damage to a playing surface described as 'a disaster' by Arsène Wenger when Arsenal drew 0-0 at the JJB in March.

The last Warriors game was played there on Sunday April 20, so the pitch will have had three weeks to 'recover'.

Oddly, though, when Chelsea played and won at Wigan back in January, there hadn't been any oval ball business on the turf for months - the grass had been scorched by equipment designed to preserve it in adverse weather and the field was barren.

Arsenal's failure to score at Wigan was widely attributed to the surface, but their problems in front of goal are well document. Amazingly, United's away record is inferior to that of Arsenal: they've dropped points on half of their travels. Facing their neighbours, they have lost at Manchester City and Bolton, beaten Liverpool and Everton, but drawn at Blackburn. And to think Ferguson used to warn that the north-west would be Chelsea's downfall.

Wigan have roughly the same home record as mid-table Spurs, though with fewer than half the goals scored. They have never taken a point off Man Utd; then again, they hadn't done that to Chelsea until that late heart-stopper at the Bridge.

Never have so many Chelsea fans invested so much faith in Heskey causing another upset. He has recovered from injury and was hugely influential in the impressive 2-0 win at Villa that secured the Latics' Premier League future last weekend. The impressive Eduardo Valencia scored both their goals. Chelsea will also hope Wigan's Chris Kirkland is as outstanding as he was against the Blues.

In the end, though, 'the big mo' can only work so far. Chelsea need to do the job in hand and if the tidings from Lancashire are glad, then so much the better. It would carry echoes of 2005, when we won the league at Bolton.

After a tumultuous season of change, injuries, mid-season tournaments and other torments, what an achievement it would be even to finish second and lose out only on goal difference - the first time that would have happened in English football history.


CHELSEA V BOLTON WANDERERS - Paul Dutton with the final weekend facts and figures.

Chelsea require a better result on Sunday than Man Utd who are away at United old boy Steve Bruce's Wigan Athletic. All games kick off simultaneously at 3pm on Sunday.

Top of the Premier League with one game to go.
Man Utd 84 pts (+56)
Chelsea 84 pts (+39)

Man Utd have not taken three points away from home since March 15th at Derby and have since drawn at Middlesbrough and Blackburn and lost at Stamford Bridge. Their away results in the north-west have been indifferent losing at Man City and Bolton, drawing at Blackburn and winning at Everton and Liverpool.

Wigan are unbeaten in the league at the JJB for nearly four months, winning four and drawing three since Everton won there in January.

Chelsea have won maximum points in four of our last five at Stamford Bridge and we are hoping Emile Heskey and Wigan can do to United what they did to us four weeks ago.

Steve Bruce won three Premier League titles under Alex Ferguson as captain of Manchester United in 1993, 1994 and 1996. He was also wearing the captain's armband in May 1995 when the Reds lost the title at West Ham on the last day of the season to Blackburn.

Sunday will be the first occasion the Premier League has gone into the final day with the top two locked together on equal points. The last time it occurred in the top flight was 40 years ago when Man City overcame Man Utd to win their second league championship. United went on to lift the European Cup for the first time at Wembley three weeks later.

The top flight has never been decided on goal difference since English league football began in 1888. The five previous occasions the top two have ended on equal points, four have been won on goal average and the other, in 1989 when Arsenal overcame Liverpool, was decided on goals scored. The goal differences were identical.

The five to date are:
1923/24 Huddersfield beat Cardiff on goal average
1949/50 Portsmouth beat Wolves on goal average
1952/53 Arsenal beat Preston on goal average
1964/65 Man Utd beat Leeds on goal average
1988/89 Arsenal beat Liverpool on goals scored

Chelsea have already qualified for next season's Champions League group stage.

We have achieved our third highest points total in our history, currently one more than last season's 83, behind the record 95 in 2004/05 and 91 in 2005/06.

This is the fourth year the Chelsea Bolton fixture has had a major influence in the destination of the Premier League. The Blues won our first Premier League championship at the Reebok in 2005 and all but won it again there the following year. Last season's draw at Stamford Bridge and United's win at Everton virtually ensured the trophy would be heading north.

We have only won one of the last four at Stamford Bridge against the Trotters. Bolton's last victory here was in December 2003 when Bruno N'Gotty equalised Hernán Crespo's opener and a last minute John Terry own goal sent the Trotters home with all three points.

Our Premier League record at Stamford Bridge against Bolton is as follows:
1995/96 Chelsea won 3-2
1997/98 Chelsea won 2-0
2001/02 Chelsea won 5-1
2002/03 Chelsea won 1-0
2003/04 Bolton won 2-1
2004/05 Drew 2-2
2005/06 Chelsea won 5-1
2006/07 Drew 2-2

Chelsea are looking to extend our record unbeaten league run at Stamford Bridge to 82 games since our last defeat against Arsenal on February 21st 2004.

The Blues are unbeaten in 101 consecutive domestic matches at Stamford Bridge (if penalty shoot-outs are excluded).

We are looking to extend our club unbeaten record at Stamford Bridge in all competitions to 68 games since our last defeat on February 22nd 2006 when Barcelona beat a ten-man Chelsea 2-1 in the Champions League. That has been our only home defeat in the last 126 games since February 2004.

Chelsea are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League of 20 matches (15 wins, five draws) since the defeat at the Emirates in December.

Chelsea have not lost when scoring first in the Premier League for 41 games (36 wins, five draws) since the 2-1 defeat at Tottenham in November 2006.

The Blues are leading the Premier League clean sheets table with 21, one ahead of Man Utd. Bolton and Wigan are equal fifth with 14 each.

Chelsea have scored over 100 goals in a season for the eighth time in our history.

Only Wigan (34) and Derby (20) have scored less league goals than Bolton's 35.

Salomon Kalou scored the only goal (41 minutes) in the reverse fixture at the Reebok in October.

Nicolas Anelka is still Bolton's leading scorer in all competitions with 11. Frank Lampard still heads Chelsea's scoring chart with 19 and has two games left to achieve 20 goals for the third successive season.

Chelsea have played 60 games in all competitions winning 39, drawing 15 and losing six. We have scored 104 goals, conceded 42 and have kept 32 clean sheets. We have failed to score on 10 occasions.

Bolton's away league record is won two (Reading 2-0, Middlesbrough 1-0), lost 12 (Fulham 1-2, Portsmouth 1-3, Birmingham 0-1, Arsenal 0-2, Liverpool 0-4, Man City 2-4, Everton 0-2, Sunderland 1-3, Blackburn 1-4, Wigan 0-1, Man Utd 0-2, Aston Villa 0-4) and drawn four (Derby 1-1, West Ham 1-1, Newcastle 0-0, Tottenham 1-1).

Bolton's last six games
Mar 29 Arsenal (h) L 2-3
Apr 5 Aston Villa (a) L 0-4
Apr 12 West Ham (h) W 1-0
Apr 19 Middlesbrough (a) W 1-0
Apr 26 Tottenham (a) D 1-1
May 3 Sunderland (h) W 2-0

Goals from El Hadji Diouf (42), playing his last home game, and a Daryl Murphy own goal (83) against Sunderland last weekend ensured Premier League football (barring a disaster) at the Reebok next season. The Trotters are 16th with 36 points, three above the drop zone but with a far superior goal difference. Team (4-3-3) Al Habsi; Steinsson, A O'Brien, Cahill, Samuel; McCann, Nolan (c), Guthrie; Diouf, Davies, Taylor.

Wanderers have played 50 games in all competitions winning 13, losing 22 and drawing 15. They have scored 46 goals, conceded 63, have kept 16 clean sheets and failed to score on 17 occasions.

They have claimed 10 points out of the last possible 12.

Premier League scorers:
Chelsea (64): Lampard 10 (4 pens), Drogba 8, Ballack 7 (2 pens), J Cole 7, Kalou 7, Essien 6, Shevchenko 4 (1 pen), Alex 2, Belletti 2, Malouda 2, Pizarro 2, Wright-Phillips 2, Anelka 1, Carvalho 1, A Cole 1, Terry 1, own goal 1 (Dunne, Man City).
Bolton (35): Anelka 10, Nolan 5, Diouf 4, Davies 3, Helguson 2, Stelios 2, Taylor 2, Braaten 1, Campo 1, Cohen 1, McCann 1, Speed 1, own goals 2 (Scharner, Wigan and Murphy, Sunderland).

Bolton have scored two goals in the last six away matches in all competitions.

There are no suspensions on either side although Nicolas Anelka is ineligible due to transfer regulations.

Bolton are the only club not to have a player sent off in the Premier League this season.

Bolton have never won the top flight. Their last major piece of silverware was the FA Cup in 1958 when they defeated Man Utd 2-0 at Wembley.

If selected, Ashley Cole will make his 50th Premier League appearance in a blue shirt and Claude Makelele his 200th start for the club.

The referee is Chris Foy. In three games he has officiated so far this season, we have scored 12 goals and conceded one. The Wigan-United game will be handled by Steve Bennett, who sent off Muntari of Portsmouth and United's Ronaldo when the two sides met last August.

Chelsea's overall record against Bolton in all competitions is: played 105, won 42, drawn 27, lost 36

Chelsea and Bolton play for the 100th time in the league on Sunday. Our head to head record in the league at Stamford Bridge is: played 49, won 25, drawn 12, lost 12.

LAST SEASON'S CORRESPONDING MATCH
Chelsea 2 Bolton Wanderers 2
Barclays Premiership, Saturday April 28th 2007, Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea (4-1-2-1-2) Cech; Gérémi, Carvalho (Lampard 28), Terry (c), Bridge; Diarra (J Cole 59); Mikel, Essien; Wright-Phillips; Shevchenko (Drogba h/t), Kalou.
Manager José Mourinho.
Booked None
Scorers Kalou (21), Jaaskelainen own goal (33)
Bolton (4-1-2-1-2): Jaaskelainen; Campo, Michalik, Meita, Gardner; Speed (c); Andranik, Tal (Sinclair 76); Thompson (Vaz Te h/t); Davies, Anelka (Cesar 90).
Manager Sam Alladyce.
Booked Davies, Gardner, Michalik
Scorers Michalik (18), Davies (53)
Referee Rob Styles.
Crowd 41,105.
Both Chelsea and Man Utd (at Everton) kicked off at 12.45 and at 1.30 we were level on points. 40 minutes later United had come back from 0-2 down to win 4-2 and virtually sealed the title ending with a five point lead with three games to play.