Chelsea’s quest to reach a fourth Champions League final, which this season will take place at Istanbul’s Ataturk Olympic Stadium on 10 June 2023, continues with AC Milan’s arrival at Stamford Bridge for an 8pm kick-off.

It is the first part of a potentially decisive Champions League double-header against the seven-time winners, and the reigning champions of Italy must cope without several key players. They will, though, have former Blues Oli Giroud and Fikayo Tomori in their ranks

Just like our first ever Champions League entrance, Chelsea have begun the 2022/23 campaign with a draw and a defeat. Coincidentally, Milan were also in the Londoners’ group back in 1999/00. Both matches between the two favourites were drawn, though while the Blues finished top of Group H the Rossoneri wound up bottom and out of the competition. Italy’s most successful European campaigners also visited Stamford Bridge in a different competition in 1966, that time losing 2-1.

Milan’s victory against Zagreb last month was their first in this competition at San Siro for nine years, and they top Group E. With just one point earned after two games, Chelsea can still accrue 13 by the end of the group phase.

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The Londoners have lost just once in our past 21 Champions League group games at Stamford Bridge, winning 13 and unbeaten in nine. We have also won eight and drawn three of our 13 home European matches against Italian opponents, with an aggregate of 27 goals to 13.

Chelsea team news

Goalkeeper Edou Mendy, yet to start in the current European campaign, is ready for action again and Marc Cucurella and Carney Chukwuemeka are over their illnesses, while Kai Havertz and Jorginho have been recovering from minor problems from Saturday. N’Golo Kante is not quite ready.

Graham Potter will hope to arm his side with the tools to cancel and dismantle seasoned European campaigners. The head coach selected a back four for the victory at Crystal Palace. As Milan’s wide resources are depleted but their midfield pair are influential we may see a repeat of the 4-2-2-2 formation that started on Saturday. That changed to 4-3-3 at half-time and served to negate Palace’s attackers, though Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s introduction as a holder was also a factor.

Potter has said he wants to play on the front foot tonight to ensure the crowd’s backing against the ‘massive challenge’ presented by the Scudetto-holders. He will think carefully about which centre-backs to select as Oli Giroud and Rafael Leao are decisive attackers with diverse threats.

Some top-quality players have not yet been used under the new coach but the spirit is good with substitutes accounting for three goals in the past four games, including winning strikes from Havertz and Conor Gallagher (assisted by fellow sub Christian Pulisic). Encouragingly, no.9 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was unmasked and on target for the first time at Selhurst Park, and one Sterling at least – Raheem – is showing his value.

Saturday’s scorers joined Ben Chilwell in having a 100 per cent conversion rate from shots on target in the top flight (albeit one), while Chilly and Reece James started as right and left full-backs for the first time since Frank Lampard’s last league match in charge in January 2021.

Last time out in this competition, a lengthy sequence of errors led to Salzburg stealing a share of the points. How differently the aftermath would have felt had one of the Blues’ late chances still been converted. As it is, tonight is not quite a must-win game, but three points would provide a huge boost ahead of the return in Lombardy next Tuesday.

Diminished Milan still a danger

On Sunday 22 May, in the city of La Scala, the home of opera, the well-fed lady was singing in honour of AC Milan’s first Serie A title in 11 years. On the way to success, coach Stefano Pioli had inspirational phrases such as ‘Be fearless’ displayed on the tunnel wall at San Siro and his severely depleted squad will need to bring that spirit with them to Stamford Bridge.

Their growing injury list includes Theo Hernandez, the attacking left-back so vital to last season’s Scudetto success, and skipper Davide Calabria, their first-pick full-backs. Christian Pulisic’s international team-mate Sergino Dest could step in on the right with Fode Ballo-Toure, a surprise goalscorer at Empoli, taking the other flank.

Like Calabria, Alexis Saelemaekers and Simon Kjaer were injured on Saturday. Kjaer’s absence likely means Pierre Kalulu dropping into central defence alongside Cobham graduate Fikayo Tomori in the usual 4-2-3-1 formation. Saelemaekers’ loss is less simple to address as the like-for-like right-winger, Junior Messias, was hurt in training the day before. Rade Krunic is likely to fill in.

Regular goalkeeper Steve Maignan is also set to miss both legs, prompting his replacement in the UEFA-registered squad by Romania international Ciprian Tatarusanu. The 6ft 6in 36-year-old likes to dominate his box, but has kept one clean sheet in his past six appearances across all competitions. Understandably, he looked ring-rusty in his first game of the season.

Pioli, a coach who prefers not to make changes, still has plenty of quality to draw on, notably upfront in Olivier Giroud and trickster Rafael Leao. The popular ex-Blue has formed an impressive partnership with the former Lille man, one of the most sought-after young attackers in Europe. There is imagination, too, in wideman Charles De Ketelaere, known to former club Bruges as ‘King Charles’.

The Rossoneri play on the front foot, commit plenty of bodies forward and wear down opponents with their energy and mobility until they concede. They are well-drilled, resilient and like to dominate possession, controlling the tempo of the game according to the situation.

Their centre-backs usually play aggressively high and far apart and, as Inter showed in a recent 3-2 win, can be caught cold on the counter. With four points to their name the group leaders may feel they can afford to drop points ahead of Tuesday’s showdown in Milan, where some of their wounded may return.

We have history

Any fixture against AC Milan instantly recalls the games against them during our first-ever sortie in the Champions League, 1999/00 (though older generations cherish the coin-toss victory over the Italians in 1966). But for a ‘ghost goal’, the two teams could have contested the 2005 Champions League final.

Both historic matches against the 1999 Rossoneri, skippered by Maldini and with Ayala, Bierhoff, Costacurta, Shevchenko and other stars to savour, were a joy to watch. The first encounter at Stamford Bridge in September was an eye-opener, as Gianluca Vialli’s side, driven by Dennis Wise, took on and outplayed the visitors tactically and technically. The result was a 0-0 draw, but the performance dispelled any doubts the club belonged among Europe’s elite. Even better was to come in Italy.

Points required

Dinamo Zagreb and RB Salzburg begin their back-to-back fixtures with an early kick-off in Austria. From a Chelsea perspective the best outcome would be points shared in both games.

What points total is required in any Champions League group is fairly predictable by looking at past averages. Thirteen points guarantees a top-two finish, while 12/11 is usually a safe bet (though a dozen was not enough for PSG in 1997/98 and Napoli in 2013/14).

Ten points will usually secure a place in the knockout stages, and the fate of a club with 9/8 depends entirely on how evenly the other points have been shared. Even 7/6 can occasionally be enough (Zenit in 2013/14 and Roma 2015/16 both qualified with half-a-dozen), though Thursday night football is far more likely.

Injured Pride

Tonight it is the visitors who are troubled by absentees, but research published in Howden’s ‘European Football Injury Index’ last week suggested Chelsea suffered an exceptional number of casualties throughout last season. The international insurance group found top-tier clubs across the continent’s five biggest leagues sustained 4,810 player injuries in 2021/22, of which 1,231 were in the Premier League.

According to the report the Blues were hit harder than any English rival, with 97 different injuries (two per cent of the European total), the next highest being Manchester United with 81 and Liverpool 80. Our Champions League semi-final opponents, Real Madrid, were the continent’s unluckiest with 114.

Blues heroes hang up boots

Two key performers in our first Champions League triumph in 2011/22 have hung up their boots. John Mikel Obi was quietly legendary in many important matches among 372 for the club, notably in 2012 at Camp Nou as a centre-back, and in the final against Bayern. Ramires, a regular pick under six coaches, scored Chelsea’s priceless first goal in that epic Barcelona second leg, already knowing he was suspended for the game of his life in Munich. We wish them a happy and successful retirement.

Check your route to the Bridge

Match-going fans are advised to check a journey planners such as TfL’s as public transport to our next two home fixtures will be reduced. National Rail and London Overground will be severely curtailed by industrial action on both days, though the Underground will be running as usual this evening. However on Saturday the District Line is part-suspended for engineering works, including services to Fulham Broadway. Buses should be unaffected but busier than usual.

Champions League results and fixtures

Tuesday 4 October results

• Bayern Munich 5 Plzen 0

• Marseille v Sporting Lisbon 5.45pm

• Ajax 1 Napoli 6

• Bruges 2 Atletico Madrid 0

• Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham 8pm

• Inter Milan 1 Barcelona 0

• Liverpool 2 Rangers 0

• Porto 2 Bayer Leverkusen 0

Wednesday 5 October fixtures

• RB Salzburg v Dinamo Zagreb 5.45pm

• RB Leipzig v Celtic 5.45pm

• Chelsea v AC Milan 8pm

• Real Madrid v Shakhtar Donetsk 8pm

• Man City v FC Copenhagen 8pm

• Sevilla v Dortmund 8pm

• Juventus v Maccabi Haifa 8pm

• Benfica v PSG 8pm