Chelsea enter the final quarter of the league campaign with a trip to Southampton, beaten 3-1 in the corresponding fixture at Stamford Bridge. Like that October match, this is a 3pm Saturday kick-off – our ninth of the season and second in succession.Most eyes are likely to be on Sunday afternoon’s meeting between Manchester City and Liverpool, but the Blues’ attempts to regain momentum will be watched by Arsenal and Tottenham, neighbours aiming to nick a top-four ticket off the doorstep.

Saturday’s hosts have the 11th-best home record in the division, mostly as a result of drawing seven of their 15 home matches to date.

Previously unbeaten in the league since September at St Mary’s (where 61 per cent of points and 54 per cent of goals have been racked up), Saints recently lost 2-1 consecutively to relegation-threatened Newcastle and Watford. As a result, they have the same number of points as at the same stage in 2020/21, when they finished 15th.

As for Chelsea, only leaders City (with 39 points from 16 games) have a better record on their travels this season than Thomas Tuchel’s side (33 from 15); the Blues’ goal difference on the road is +20. And in contrast to the well-publicised recent home woes, Chelsea have won eight of our past nine matches across all competitions away from Stamford Bridge.

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Southampton find themselves the filling in the Spanish bocadillo, three days after Chelsea’s quarter-final loss to Real Madrid and three days before the fight to claw back hopes of remaining European champions resumes at the Santiago Bernabeu. Even after the Spanish excursion there is no let-up: Crystal Palace lie in wait at Wembley the following Sunday.

Tuchel therefore has selection dilemmas at a moment his squad seems to lack freshness as well as form. His third-placed Blues also need a good league result after last weekend’s setback at home to Brentford, when we became the first Premier League side ever to score the opening goal in the second half but go on to lose by a three-goal margin. Weirdly, cut the crazy 15 minutes out of the past two games and our previously watertight defence might have helped secure two 1-1 draws.

Top-four aspirants Arsenal being emphatically beaten by the Eagles on Monday was good news. Finishing in a Champions League berth is still in our gift and, as everyone’s wriggle room runs down, a win at St Mary’s would be most welcome.

Happily there have been more top-flight ups than downs in the south for the Blues, who have won 25 of the 39 played, drawing eight and losing six. Since Rickie Lambert scored Southampton’s winner in March 2013, our only defeat in the deep south came at Bournemouth three years ago. We have also won six on the spin on all fronts on the road – a fine achievement.

As with Real, winning the intense midfield scrap is usually half the battle against Saints, and the blend in that area has not quite been right in both the recent defeats. Tuchel’s other decisions revolve around who best offers balance in central defence and the left flank either in a four or five, and how to ensure the front three clicks more fluidly.

Kai Havertz continues his fine run of goalscoring across all competitions (seven in his past 10 games), but more verve, pressing and efficiency in front of goal would help the Blues’ cause generally. It would not be a surprise to see the silky German held back for Tuesday in the Spanish capital (even though Tuchel appeared to concede the tie is effectively over), and Romelu Lukaku asked to resume the October line-leading that helped turn Saints into sinners in a 3-1 win.

Rhythm of the Saints

While Chelsea tussled with the Spanish league leaders Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side had a clear week to prepare for this fixture. Prior to last weekend’s draw at Leeds, they had lost four on the spin across all competitions including the last two at home, denting the Austrian’s ambitions of a top-half finish. They have scored a single goal in 15 of their 30 league matches.

Since their defeat at Stamford Bridge, Cobham graduate Tino Livramento has vied for the right-back slot with Kyle Walker-Peters, Fraser Forster has stood in while goalkeeper Alex McCarthy was injured, and summer signing Adam Armstrong has dropped from centre-forward to right midfield in the same 4-4-2 shape. There was no place in last week’s squad for Nathan Redmond, a starter earlier in the campaign, nor Theo Walcott.

Armando Broja, contractually unable to face his parent club, is one of Saints’ most potent marksmen. The Chelsea loanee has scored six league goals from his 38 shots (20 on target), compared to Che Adams’ seven from 42 attempts, and the seven from 40 recorded by James Ward-Prowse.

The England man netted his 13th direct free-kick in the top-flight in the 1-1 at Leeds and the average distance of his shots is 27.1 metres. In contrast, Danny Ings’ replacement Armstrong has a return of two goals from 44 attempts, with 31.8 per cent forcing a save. As Hasenhuttl has said, though, if you do not shoot, you cannot score.

The Saints coach also backed Mohammed Salisu, his best-performing central defender earlier in the season, after a series of below-par performances including loose balls and penalties conceded.Only seven top-flight teams have conceded more goals than Saints, though there has been nothing yet approaching last season’s 9-0 drubbing by United or the brace of 5-2 losses. October’s 3-1 defeat at the Bridge is their third-heaviest reverse.

With visits by Liverpool and Arsenal still to come, Saints have taken a share of the points from each of the current top seven teams at St Mary’s. They are particularly strong in the first half, scoring nearly twice as many as opponents (13 compared to seven) before the break.

A great time to turn things round

The Brentford setback was part of an unfortunate pattern over the past few campaigns, and it came almost a year to the day of the 2-5 home loss to West Bromwich. In truth, over the past four seasons, Chelsea have faded at the business end of the season in league terms, while going all the way in cups.

Over the last 10 games of Premier League campaigns since our last title win in 2017, Chelsea (currently better off points-wise than any season since then) have, on average, dropped 36 per cent of the 30 points available. Points earned per game were lower in that closing period than the season as a whole every year except 2019/20. That said, in each of those run-ins, we had the excellent compensation of one or more domestic and overseas cup finals.

Taking its toll

According to data collated by Physioroom.com, only four teams have been affected more by injury or illness this season than Chelsea, who had 37 incidents reported. Including lengthy spells on the sidelines for Reece James and Ben Chilwell, the Blues have lost players for a total of 837 days, the 10th-highest figure in the top-flight.

Staying focused

With cup competitions home and abroad at the quarter- or semi-final stage, 14 Premier League clubs are playing only for the highest possible league finish. The six who still have other interests are Chelsea (FA Cup, Champions League), Crystal Palace (FA Cup), Liverpool (FA Cup, Champions League), Manchester City (FA Cup, Champions League), Leicester City (Conference League) and West Ham (Europa League).

In the league the relegation scrap now looks likely to embroil five of the 14, and of the remaining nine clubs only Arsenal, Manchester United and Wolves have a European place to chase. That leaves six squads playing for pride and merit money over the last nine or so fixtures. There is no doubt Ralph Hasenhuttl would regard Chelsea as a prime scalp for the CV, but after two straight losses will the Blues remain vulnerable, or turn into that dangerous ‘wounded animal’.

Premier League fixtures

FridayNewcastle v Wolves - 8pm (Sky Sports)

SaturdayEverton v Man Utd - 12.30pm (BT Sport)Arsenal v Brighton - 3pmSouthampton v Chelsea - 3pmWatford v Leeds - 3pmAston Villa v Tottenham - 5.30pm (Sky Sports)

SundayBrentford v West Ham - 2pmLeicester v Crystal Palace - 2pmNorwich v Burnley - 2pm (Sky Sports)Man City v Liverpool - 4.30pm (Sky Sports)

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