With Chelsea one of seven teams with hopes of grabbing one of the final two European spots on the last day of the Premier League season, we run through all the various possibilities for Sunday.
There is still plenty up in the air all over the Premier League table going into the final round of fixtures. Only three of the 20 sides go into Sunday’s games knowing for certain where they will finish in the table.
Chelsea returned to eighth place with the 2-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur at Stamford Bridge in midweek, which also left the relegation fight between Spurs and West Ham United hanging into matchday 38.
The Blues meet Sunderland at the Stadium of Lights as the Premier League concludes across the country at 4pm on Sunday, with both teams in the mix for European qualification, and as such it is arguably the game which will have the biggest say on the outcome of that particular battle.
Realistically, we are competing for a finish between seventh and 10th. The three teams below that on 49 points - Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham - are still technically in the fight, but it would take a dramatic turnaround in goal difference for them to catch Chelsea, even if they manage to make up the three-point gap. Newcastle are currently closest, but even they would need a seven-goal swing.
That leaves us mainly competing with Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford and Sunderland, the four teams going into Sunday separated by just two points, with the side finishing seventh qualifying for the UEFA Europa League and eighth entering the UEFA Conference League for 2026/27.
The simplest calculation comes first. If Brighton with their one-point advantage beat Manchester United, they will secure seventh no matter what happens elsewhere. Similarly, Sunderland simply must win. Anything else and the Black Cats are out of the picture for the top eight.
A Chelsea win at the Stadium of Light will almost guarantee either a Europa League or Conference League place, as long as Brentford don’t better our winning margin in their game against Liverpool by at least four, to catch our superior goal difference.
Victory would also see us leapfrog Brighton into seventh, if they drop points against Manchester United. However, if the Blues taste defeat, our chances of Europe would be over, with both Brighton and Sunderland then certain to finish above us.
The most nerve-wracking out come would be a draw between Chelsea and Sunderland. In that case we could still get seventh, but only if Brentford don’t win and Brighton lose to Man Utd by at least two goals. If Brighton get a point and Brentford don’t win, that would mean an eighth-place finish, whereas a Brentford win at Anfield would see them overtake us and knock the Blues out of the top eight.
Hopefully a Chelsea win at Sunderland will make most of those calculations academic, and just leave us hoping Brighton can’t match our result on the final day to secure seventh place and a spot in next season’s Europa League.