Ahead of the final round of fixtures in the Premier League, we take a look at the permutations required for Chelsea to finish in the top five and secure Champions League football for next season.
A single match remains and only Liverpool and Arsenal are guaranteed to be playing in Europe’s elite competition in 2025/26, along with Europa League winners Tottenham.
The remaining places will go to three of Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. It is all to play for on Sunday, and here is how the table stands going into matchday 38.
Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal difference | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Man City | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 68 |
Newcastle | 37 | 20 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 66 |
Chelsea | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 66 |
Aston Villa | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 66 |
Nottingham Forest | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 65 |
Sunday’s relevant fixtures, all 4pm BST
Fulham vs Manchester City
Newcastle vs Everton
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
How can Chelsea qualify for the Champions League?
Beating Nottingham Forest would all but guarantee Champions League football. If we do that, the only way we wouldn’t finish in the top five is if Newcastle, Manchester City, and Aston Villa win, and Villa’s victory over Man United is by 11 goals more than ours over Forest. That would be a Premier League record victory!
OR
We draw with Nottingham Forest, and either Aston Villa fail to win at Man United, or Newcastle lose to Everton.
OR
We lose to Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa lose to Man United AND Newcastle lose to Everton by three more goals than we lose to Forest.
What about the other teams?
There are several complicated and unlikely permutations that could decide the other teams’ fate, but the headline requirement for each of the other contenders is as follows:
Manchester City and Newcastle are guaranteed to finish in the top five if they win on Sunday. A draw for Man City is also highly likely to be enough.
If Aston Villa beat Man United and better our result, they will finish in the top five.
Nottingham Forest have to beat Chelsea and hope Aston Villa do not win if they are to finish in the top five. Even if Villa lose, a draw will not be enough for Forest.